by T.W. Budig
ECM Capitol reporter

Though politically battered in recent years, Republicans look forward to the next election with optimism and confidence.

All three Republican members of Minnesota’s congressional delegation foresee their party’s fortunes brightening — perhaps even begin to shimmer. Washington pundits predict Republicans will pick up seats in the U.S. House in November, said 2nd Congressional District Congressman John Kline, R-Lakeville.

It’s true.

Charlie Cook, of the influential Cook Political Report, currently predicts that House Democrats will lose between 20 to 30 seats — a loss ratio increased just six weeks ago.

Another Washington insider, Dick Morris, has predicted Republicans will win back the House — something Cook does not rule out.

A dream, says Rep. Kline

“That’s a dream that very few of us could have six months ago,” said Kline, speaking shortly before Christmas, about recapturing the House.

“And it’s a dream now that’s starting to have legs,” he said.

Third Congressional District Congressman Erik Paulsen, R-Eden Prairie, recently echoed the optimism.

CONGRESSMAN JOHN KLINE

“It (retaking the House) certainly is a possibility — it’s sort of growing more possible each and every day,” said Paulsen,  pointing to the recent defection of an Alabama Democratic congressman to the Republican ranks as a portent of shifting power.

Republicans got mauled in the past two elections, explained Gov. Tim Pawlenty recently.

He compared the Republican Party now to a sports team in the rebuilding process.

“It’s a party in transition,” said Pawlenty.

Inter generational changes are taking place. New personalities, new ideas arising.

As the party nears the elections, things will begin to crystallize, said Pawlenty, nationally seen a potential presidential candidate.

A very narrow road

One Minnesota DFLer sees the Republican Party heading down a very narrow road.

Democratic National Committee member Nancy Larson views the party as getting too conservative, devising litmus tests of fidelity.

“I see the Republican Party doing what the Democratic Party did for a number of years — it was going too tight with the base,” said Larson.

“I think that doesn’t bode well for the country, and I think it doesn’t bode well for the Republican Party,” she said.

But Republicans do not necessarily look back fondly at the party’s performance in recent years.

They talk of a damaged brand, loss of core principles. “I think Republicans have their share of the blame as well,” said Pawlenty of perceived out-of-control federal spending.

But the governor places greater blame on Democrats.

Tea Party movement

Sixth Congressional District Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, R-Stillwater, in part traces the origins of the Tea Party movement — a ground level movement of Americans defined by what they’re against, said New York Times columnist David Brooks recently — back to the Bush Administration’s handling of the financial services industry meltdown.

President Bush signed the $700 billion bailout bill in the fall of 2008.

“And that really hurt the Republican brand,” said Bachmann. “And I think people said, ‘That’s it. I had it,’” said Bachmann.

Kline, too, indicated that Republicans had to reestablish the party’s fiscal credibility. “There has been a lot of soul searching and rethinking,” Kline explained. “There’s no appetite in the Republican Party for expanding government,” he said.

The party has learned from the past, Paulsen indicated. “I think folks are looking for fresh ideas, renewed energy, and the party has probably learned from some of its mistakes a little bit — particularly on the fiscal side,” he said.

But where is the new energy coming from?

The Tea Party movement has caught media attention and is credited with impacting Republican politics.

Bachmann, who nationally has become identified with the movement, diagnoses it as containing many Republicans, but also as self-identified conservatives, independents, libertarians, disaffected Democrats.

A large coalition

“It’s a fairly large coalition,” she said.But there’s probably about 70 percent agreement on issues, said Bachmann.

Bachmann does not view the entire movement as automatically shifting into the Republican camp. “I think that remains to be seen,” she said. “I think people are really waiting to see if the Republican Party will return to its core conservative principles,” said Bachmann.

Pawlenty, too, see a distance. “At this time it’s a movement separate from either political party,” said Pawlenty.

But the Republican Party is changing, the governor noted. “I hope the Tea Party movement is part of that,” said Pawlenty.

According to the Washington Times, conservative members of the Republican National Committee want to create a rule that would restrict the party from funding candidates failing to meet a conservative threshold.

The idea is to prevent tea partiers from undercutting Republican candidates, the newspaper reports.

Pawlenty, Bachmann, Kline, and Paulsen all indicated that in general they did not favor formal Republican Party purity tests.

Nobody from nowhere, says Bachmann

Minnesota has a good endorsement system, Bachmann said. “I am nobody from nowhere,” she said. She had to go “eyeball-to-eyeball” with district Republicans to gain their trust, their support, Bachmann recently explained. “That was really the best litmus test there was,” she said.

Paulsen believes the Republican Party can be a “big tent” party without watering down its principles.

“I think it can be done. And I think it should be done,” he said.

CONGRESSMAN ERIK PAULSEN

“The old (President) Ronald Reagan philosophy is the philosophy I think should guide us,” he said.

That is, someone who agrees with the party 80 percent of the time is a friend — not a traitor for disagreeing 20 percent of the time, he explained.

Reagan philosophy will build majority, says Paulsen

“I think that Ronald Reagan’s philosophy is to going to be what builds a governing majority — it’s been successful in the past,” said Paulsen.

Although saying it’s too early to know how many seats Republicans will pick up in the House, Democrat Larson indicated that the minority party often gains seats in presidential mid-term elections.

That’s not unusual.

That some American are uneasy with the changes being crafted by Democrats in Washington is understandable, Larson explained.

Democrats are out to make changes.

“And people are always worried when there’s change” said Larson.

But she also thought that believing simple answers would solve complex problems was wishful thinking.