Posted: 10/24/02

Minnesota's population expected to leap by 1.3 million by 2030

by T.W. Budig
ECM capitol reporter

Minnesotaís population is expected to leap by 1.3 million by 2030, with a greying of the populace ó the over-55 crowd growing by 2 million over the next 30 years.

The population growth rate is faster than anticipated, say demographers.

ìThis is mainly because we are assuming Minnesota will continue to have net in-migration from other states and countries,î said state demographer Tom Gillaspy.

During the 1990s, Minnesota had more than a quarter of a million people move in than move out, Gillaspy noted.

Demographers note that a birthrate that will be higher than the death rate ó though later is expected to increase ó will account for about two-thirds the stateís projected population growth over the next 30 years.

In terms of growth by location, the population projects released by the Minnesota Planning Wednesday (Oct. 23) confirms earlier assumptions the Twin Citiesí suburban area, the St. Cloud and Rochester corridors, will be epicenters of growth.

Scott, Sherbune, Carver will grow fastest

Scott, Sherburne, and Carver counties are expected to be the fastest growing counties this decade. But some 21 counties largely located in western Minnesota are expected to lose population.

Not all rural counties will suffer population losses.

The presence of lakes and forests in a county is a likely harbinger of future growth, according to the demographer.

In the metro, suburbs and exurban areas, the growth expected among the counties over the next 30 years ranges from substantial to explosive.

Anoka County is expected to grow by 35 percent by 2030, to about 400,000: Chisago is expected to grow by 69 percent by 2030, to a population of about 70,000; Dakota, 41 percent by 2030, population about 500,000; Isanti, 35 percent by 2030, population 42,000; Mille Lacs, 53 percent by 2030, population 34,000; Sherburne, a whopping 89 percent by 2030, 122,000; and Washington, 65 percent by 2030, population about 332,000.

In terms of regions, East and East Central Minnesota are expected to grow about 50 percent over the next three decades. Such double-digit growth certainly isnít uniform around the state.

The Upper Minnesota Valley will continue to depopulate over the decade, rebounding by a mere one percent growth by 2030.

Minnesota, as indicated, is greying.

Average age to increase

The average age is expected to increase by five years to the age of 40 by 2030. The number of Minnesotans, ages 50 to 64, is anticipated to grow by more than 300,000 over this decade.

The 65-plus age group statewide is expected to grow by some 700,000 by 2030.

This is growth rate of 117 percent, demographers note.

Over the next 10 years, the 65-plus population is expected to grow by more than 6,000 in Hennepin, Dakota, Anoka, Washington, and Ramsey counties.

The number of people age 85 and older in the suburbs is also expected to explode over the next three decades.

85 and older population to grow

The 85 and older population is Washington County is expected to grow almost 300 percent; projection levels for Anoka County only slightly lower, estimated at a 270 percent growth of residents 85 and older.

In general, the senior population is expected to triple in most suburban counties between 2000 and 2030, demographers note.

This greying carries ramifications.

ìHealth care costs can be expected to skyrocket as the old population grows rapidly,î said Minnesota Planning Director Dean Barkley.

Minnesota is expected to grow by about 533,000 or about 11 percent over this decade, according to the projections.

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